is to find defects not found through previously available inspections methods, while the machine is in normal operation. It will involve monitoring the equipment to generate work orders based on the data and meter reading conducted by a machine monitoring device. The goal of predictive maintenance is the ability to first predict when equipment failure could occur (based on certain factors), followed by preventing the failure through regularly scheduled and corrective maintenance. The only downside to using vibration analysis is the cost associated in implementing it with a PdM program. While many maintenance programs use a bit of both, there are several differences between predictive maintenance and preventive maintenance. As oil and gas operations become more complex, visibility into the equipment’s condition becomes more difficult, especially in remote, offshore and deep-water locations. GE is organized around a global exchange of knowledge, the "GE Store," through which each business shares and accesses the same technology, markets, structure and intellect. Finally, PdM procedures must be implemented immediately in order for the organization to start reaping the benefits. By proactively monitoring the equipment, a trained technician can compare the readings against known failure modes to determine where problems are occurring. A number of modeling methods from machine learning, artificial intelligence, and statistics are available in predictive analytics software solutions for this task.. Predictive maintenance could be seen as a competitive advantage for oil and gas companies as well as the related service businesses, particularly during times of a recession when organizations are forced to find ways to work more efficiently and effectively. There are three facets of condition monitoring: online, periodic and remote. Accessed November 4, 2018. By not requiring condition monitoring, a preventive maintenance program does not involve as much capital investment in technology and training. “As far as maintenance costs are concerned, preventive maintenance costs $13 hourly pay per annum while predictive maintenance costs $9 hourly pay per annum, making predictive maintenance a cheaper option” (Ulbert, “The Difference Between Predictive Maintenance and Preventive Maintenance”). %PDF-1.6 %���� How much risk you are willing to take with a given failure mode coupled with how much you are willing to pay for the inspection determines the appropriate strategy. We can also create a model to determine if the failure will occur in different time windows, for example, fails in the window (1,w0) or fails in the window (w0+1, w1) days, and so on. Unplanned outages result in excessive maintenance, repair and equipment replacement.”. Taking advantage of the available technology lets you assess the condition of parts and the presence of defects heretofore impossible to detect. While both sonic and ultrasonic testing can be expensive, there is another form of acoustic monitoring that is quite affordable: a technician’s ears. Chapter 1: In-Service Oil Analysis for Condition Based Maintenance | 9 Benefits of In-Service Oil Analysis The key benefits of in-service oil analysis are maintenance cost savings and productivity increases from increasing the uptime of running machines. Considered less expensive than ultrasonic technology, sonic technology is useful on mechanical equipment but limited in its use. Predictive analytics uses many techniques from data mining, statistics, modeling, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to analyze current data to make predictions about future. It enables a technician to check the oil’s condition and determine if other particles and contaminants are present. While there are several different technologies to aid in your PdM efforts, it is vital to choose the right one to ensure success. According to Control Engineering, “The start of predictive maintenance (PdM) may have been when a mechanic first put his ear to the handle of a screwdriver, touched the other end to a machine, and pronounced that it sounded like a bearing was going bad.”. Predictive maintenance also requires more investments in people, training and equipment than preventive maintenance, but the time savings and cost savings will be greater in the long run. H�l��n1Fy�}_U(;���R� It was believed that sending someone around often enough to inspect for problems with machinery would result in identifying defects in plenty of time to mitigate unplanned downtime. Before establishing a predictive maintenance program, an organization must take several steps, which include: Reviewing any and all available records on downtime, equipment defects, losses (yield and energy), potential regulation fines and workplace safety, Establishing definitions and concepts as well as building a case for PdM, Educating major stakeholders and getting buy-in, Completing an equipment inventory and appraising the current equipment conditions, Selecting equipment for the program’s initial implementation, Developing system details based on individual systems and/or components, Evaluating any existing preventive or predictive maintenance, Deciding which systems to include and what to inspect for, Defining the program’s criticality and establishing PdM frequency and schedule type, Evaluating the anticipated resources and assigning personnel roles and responsibilities, Organizing the program and integrating it into the scheduling system, Educating and obtaining buy-in from operations and maintenance, Upgrading equipment and conducting training, Creating a computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS). The inspector would use sight, sound and touch to determine if anything had changed since the last inspection. In addition, the entire organization needs to understand the actual cost and repercussions of poor maintenance. Should I perform some type of quantitative inspection? Predictive modeling is the process of creating, testing and validating a model to best predict the probability of an outcome. Generally, predictive maintenance involves higher up-front technological investment, particularly for businesses starting with legacy systems. “Predictive Maintenance Technologies.” Accessed November 4, 2018. As the name suggests, the goal of predictive maintenance is to predict when maintenance is needed. X����n�;A$k!ؖ@��D�i�H�O@�Qd�� �-���`���`���l��H�w�b`bdpT �b`z�䣡��Qr0��sG�J�g8ds � �� endstream endobj 16992 0 obj<>stream There are 9 Types of Maintenance split between Preventive Maintenance and Corrective Maintenance. Sensory inspections have long been considered the backbone of any good inspection program and maintenance work. Should I apply one or more condition-monitoring technologies? Accessed November 2, 2018. Immerman, Graham. Predictive maintenance allows equipment users and manufacturers to assess the working condition of machinery, diagnose faults, or estimate when the next equipment failure is likely to occur. It is all but impossible for a sensory inspection to identify early, internal defects in machines. While traditionally slow to modernize its maintenance systems, the oil and gas industry is becoming a major proponent of predictive maintenance. The Operator’s Manual for Human Factors in Maintenance and Ground Operations 2 PRELUDE. Predictive maintenance involves the use of sensors, data and Internet of Things (IoT) technology to inform and predict maintenance needs before any concerns arise. There are different types of defect inspection techniques that can be brought to bear on a machine, and each has its advantages and disadvantages. �ʱKO���LC�Wg���t��QL˅��`�Y������)�(�V�������r�*�9�"${'��;�=1Q5&keڟ �/�qq���r%Ϛ����++�v�J�4�XB��@Lұ�Y���&��E�[�ШS��ө��RY���zwX ��1�4�)�C���קz��:��TպA��DI�6�&�BZݭ�\jN���� ��5g�5G���ő���/�P�g�����h��vϻ�±����Vc�Q�720k|yn�aa�'�t���Ǽ�l��������h�:�^~Î�Eg��V����vU|��6��7�.x�x~��m��d�~�Vq���{ю�vs ��fE�l����S��*p;�# �lDq=8�n�4q��`���0^=�����5 Y��iؑ� 8�Eg endstream endobj 16784 0 obj<>/PageMode/UseOutlines/Names 16817 0 R/ViewerPreferences<>/Outlines 16847 0 R/Metadata 324 0 R/AcroForm 16816 0 R/Pages 16771 0 R/PageLayout/SinglePage/OpenAction 16785 0 R/StructTreeRoot 433 0 R/Type/Catalog/PageLabels 16769 0 R>> endobj 16785 0 obj<> endobj 16786 0 obj<>/ColorSpace<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]/ExtGState<>>>/Type/Page>> endobj 16787 0 obj<>stream Each determines the presence of the defect at different places along the P-F curve and, as a result, each gives the planning function different amounts of time to respond to the defect. Around 65 percent of maintenance personnel surveyed in Reliable Plant's 2019 Predictive Maintenance Survey said they use predictive maintenance. When done properly, oil analysis can yield a myriad of results to help make predictive maintenance successful. Accessed November 1, 2018. These simple tools do allow for different failure modes to be detected, but they shouldn't replace a comprehensive condition-monitoring program. How do I identify the presence of a key defect in such a way as to maximize the amount of time my planning department has to develop the job procedures, create work orders, order the parts, and schedule and complete the work before the conditional probability of failure becomes too high? Another advantage of predictive maintenance is its ability to transform both a maintenance team and an organization, as implementing PdM allows asset managers to improve outcomes and better balance priorities such as profitability and reliability. While there is no Magic 8-Ball, there are several condition-monitoring devices and techniques that can be employed for effectively predicting failure, as well as providing advanced warning for maintenance on the horizon. And generally speaking, you must conduct this while the equipment is in normal operation, with little to no process interruption. Truck Maintenance and Operation X15 (EPA 2017) Quick Reference Guide CumminsLogo.pdf 1 5/8/09 2:43 PM Cummins Inc. When implemented and executed, predictive maintenance is a cornerstone of a successful maintenance program. Your Oil is Talking, but Are You Listening? “Condition Monitoring of Rotating Machines.” Istec International. To realize return on capital investments and keep machines running at peak efficiency, facilities must place a greater emphasis on predictive maintenance. Employed primarily for high-speed rotating equipment, vibration analysis allows a technician to monitor a machine’s vibrations by using a handheld analyzer or real-time sensors built into the equipment. Preventive Maintenance is done before a failure occurs and consists of maintenance types like: Time Based Maintenance, Failure Finding Maintenance, Risk Based Maintenance, Condition Based Maintenance and Predictive Maintenance. Implementing predictive maintenance requires a significant investment in money, personnel and education. “Predictive Maintenance Using Hadoop for the Oil and Gas Industry,” MapR Technologies Inc., May 2015. Box 3005 Columbus, IN 47202-3005 U.S.A. Quantitative inspections can provide useful information when it comes to generating data for trending and determining the characteristic life of a failure mode. The global predictive maintenance market size is projected to reach USD 28.24 billion in 2025. 2017. • Predictive analytics is developing into a powerful tool for generating an enormous boost in forecasting efficiency as well as operations and performance. Machines run longer if the right oils are used and if the oils are dry, clean and fit for use. Quantitative inspections need someone to measure something. The future of EAM may be in the cloud. While many recognize the importance of utilizing predictive maintenance for high-dollar machines, PdM is also viable for monitoring smaller, everyday assets such as coffee machines, printers, postage meters and more. Worn components, including malfunctioning electrical circuits, typically emit heat that will display as a hotspot on a thermal image (“Predictive Maintenance,” Lean Manufacturing Tools). 1����� All process operators must also be educated and involved in performing the required maintenance checks. According to a report by Deloitte, “the Internet of Things (IoT) is perhaps the biggest piece of the PdM puzzle … IoT translates physical actions from machines into digital signals using sensors such as temperature, vibration or conductivity … Once the physical actions have been translated into digital signals via sensors, they are processed, aggregated and analyzed. Condition monitoring, also known as predictive maintenance (PdM), is the application of condition-based monitoring technologies, statistical process control or equipment performance for early detection and elimination of equipment defects that could lead to unplanned downtime or unnecessary expenditures. This maintenance schedule is based on either a usage or time trigger. However, a majority of these have been reactive. Many facilities possess a mindset of “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.” Unfortunately, this mindset contributes to unplanned maintenance and downtime. Accessed November 1, 2018. May 1, 2018. Any inspection that requires someone to measure something should have the minimum, maximum and typical values, with conditional tasks defined for when the limits are exceeded. Accessed November 4, 2018. This cost has decreased over time with the introduction of cloud-based technology. PDF Figures and Tables ... A predictive model is a mathematical relationship between explanatory (independent) variables and an outcome (dependent) variable with the goal of predicting a future outcome based on the values of the explanatory variables in the model. The purpose of these tools (vibration analysis, infrared thermography, motor circuit analysis, etc.) While many organizations choose to train existing employees on predictive maintenance, there are condition-monitoring contractors who specialize in performing the required labor and analyzing the results for a facility. “How to Leverage Multiple Predictive Maintenance Technologies.” Machinery Lubrication. Very common quantitative inspections include measuring the temperature of a seal on a pump or measuring the backplate clearance on a pump impeller. A failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) can help you determine which inspection techniques should be applied, how often and with what degree of redundancy. While there is a tremendous amount of benefit to sending someone around to perform inspections, there are so many holes in this strategy that it should never be considered the backbone of the inspection program. By quickly identifying hotspots, infrared inspections can pinpoint problems and help avoid costly repairs and downtime. One of the main disadvantages of predictive maintenance is the amount of time it takes to assess and implement a PdM schedule. With predictive devices currently available, it is incumbent upon Wikipedia. Through the utilization of various nondestructive testing and measuring techniques, predictive maintenance determines equipment status before a breakdown occurs. Asset owners and maintainers need to make timely and well-informed maintenance decisions based on the actual or predicted condition of their physical assets. Using this data, the IIoT is able to create “advanced prediction models and analytical tools to predict failures and address them proactively. Equipment failure is the cause of 42 percent of this unplanned downtime. The entire organization must be committed to making predictive maintenance a mandated part of the normal schedules. Periodic condition monitoring, which is achieved through vibration analysis, “gives insight into changing vibration behavior of installations” with a trend analysis (“Condition Monitoring of Rotating Machines,” Istec International). With predictive maintenance being a complex initiative, plant personnel must be trained on how to not only use the equipment but also how to interpret the analytics (or data). Previously, mechanics and millwrights relied on "lift checks" to determine the amount of clearance in a bearing. Predictive Maintenance. Lastly, many preventive maintenance programs need manual data-gathering and analyzing. GE is the world’s Digital Industrial Company, transforming industry with software-defined machines and solutions that are connected, responsive and predictive. The theoretical capacity of a manufacturing process or machine is the output per unit of time of continuous operation at the maximum safe operating speed. While these tools multiply the power of the human senses, they have their limit. As mentioned, the advantages of predictive maintenance are tremendous from a cost-savings perspective and include minimizing planned downtime, maximizing equipment lifespan, optimizing employee productivity and increasing revenue (Immerman, “The Impact of Predictive Maintenance on Manufacturing”). Long life and minimum maintenance requirements are vital for reduction in operating and maintenance costs while minimizing the overall life cycle cost. Predictive maintenance could be seen as a competitive advantage for oil and gas companies as well as the related service businesses, particularly during times of a recession when organizations are forced to find ways to work more efficiently and effectively. An example of the advantage these tools have in the area of quantitative inspections or sensory inspections is the use of vibration analysis to determine the presence of a defect on a rolling element bearing. In fact, several studies by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program found that a properly functioning predictive maintenance program provides savings ranging from 30-40 percent over reactive maintenance, and 8-12 percent over preventative maintenance. Accessed November 2, 2018. With trains having a high initial investment, there is a keen focus on keeping them in service as long as possible. Many organizations offer in-depth training to prepare individuals for certification as vibration analysts. x�bbd```b``�"���9�d However, only… According to an article in MaintWorld, “In the future, reliable railway maintenance is expected to rely upon smart transportation systems and interconnected solutions such as predictive maintenance and integrated security tools in order to improve critical issues like safety, delays and overall system capacity” (Peycheva, “Railway Goes Smart with Predictive Maintenance and Industry 4.0 CMMS”). �J@�]���l�Mrѷg��R�"�ɷ㱿ck������-���n��n��1����n�wC!����ۃ[.�ŷ���<>���O��n?^8\��������_��]����a����w��sח��)��pv�*��}����_�>����j�sb�}>S��4�%oM���җ�!�'[R#l�7�����;[�=���֦�lK��2 RN����%�s��st�����s1�M��s��w��0 [P��h2(�x4 P��ht[P��h0'����n “Predictive Maintenance and the Smart Factory.” Deloitte. x��ZkS�����9_�餫�e����Ŵ$ua/�"K�$�?���J���͙3i*���{��yv��C�7L��;0,��RhX�*E�cr�6 ' Predictive maintenance is a little-used approach that has great potential; the cases in the section on present practice elaborate on it. Each day, oil and gas companies collect massive amounts of data through sensors – particularly wireless sensors – in oil fields around the world. With IR cameras, personnel are able to detect high temperatures (aka, hotspots) in equipment. A machine operating in peak condition exhibits a particular vibration pattern. In other applications, PdM is used to: Help prevent utility outages with the help of drones and sensors that map utility networks, Detect a temperature decline in a steam pipeline, indicating a potential pressure leak, Capture increased temperatures in electrical panels to prevent component failures, Measure supply-side and demand-side power at a common coupling point for monitoring power consumption, Identify motor amperage spikes or overheating from bad bearings or insultation breakdowns, Find three-phase power imbalances from harmonic distortion, overloads, degradation or failure of one or more phases. As manufacturers work with tight margins and timeframes, the thought of unscheduled downtime has become undesirable. hbspt.cta.load(3951034, 'e84dcc94-6e63-48f1-b2ac-0381ec9f447a', {}); Thermal Imaging and Industrial Maintenance Best Practices, Successfully Navigating Condition-Based Maintenance Language, 8 Steps to Successfully Implement a Preventive Maintenance Program, Measuring Water Concentration with the FluidScan: Get the Best Results with These 5 Simple Tips. With the arrival of Industry 4.0 in the manufacturing realm, facilities are eager to utilize the IIoT to gain better insights into operations. Predictive maintenance (PdM) is maintenance that monitors the performance and condition of equipment during normal operation to reduce the likelihood of failures. Development Time The landing gear design is iterative involving trade-off studies between pDC q���B���P�>�s ��G�k(�֦8�f��"�5����p�a�H8O�}z$�/�4�m�_��й�{�0���/����4�t��c���2���#���+�W� 3A[� endstream endobj 16788 0 obj<>stream Another application for PdM is in the railway sector, particularly as it relates to the rail industry’s digital transformation. These measurements provide data to the planner and engineer and help determine the need for further maintenance action. Should I perform some type of sensory inspection? 3. But a quantitative inspection performed at the proper inspection frequency rarely will have a measurement that exceeds the limits. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Unplanned downtime costs industrial manufacturers an estimated $50 billion annually. A predictive maintenance is a little more complex than the two other strategies that have been discussed. Borescope inspections, CMMS, data integration and condition monitoring can also help facilitate predictive maintenance. While these initial investments might seem daunting to an organization, predictive maintenance’s return on investment (ROI) far outweighs any upfront costs. To be successful, predictive maintenance relies on sensors for collecting and analyzing data from various sources, such as a CMMS and critical equipment sensors. According to an IBM buyer’s guide (PDF, 478 KB): “When choosing asset management software, organizations are increasingly gravitating toward software as a service (SaaS) — a cloud-based delivery model in which software is hosted centrally by a vendor and available on demand.”This approach offers some compelling advantages. This dictates the choice of materials, its corrosion properties and fatigue properties. These high frequencies are the exact frequencies generated by worn and underlubricated bearings, faulty electrical equipment, leaky valves, etc.” (Wright, “How to Leverage Multiple Predictive Maintenance Technologies”). With the affordability of bandwidth and storage, massive amounts of data can be transmitted to give not only a full picture of assets in a single plant, but of an entire production network” (Coleman et al., “Predictive Maintenance and the Smart Factory”). Utilizing GE’s expertise as one of the leading The advantages of predictive maintenance are many. Ulbert, Sebastian, “The Difference Between Predictive Maintenance and Preventive Maintenance,” Coresystems, September 15, 2015. Wall Street Journal. Ensuring technicians are trained will be vital, as it can be difficult to predict machine failure utilizing vibration analysis. When paired with predictive maintenance, the IIoT has the ability to catch equipment failures in advance. �d��r�6B��cD��%�؎jF��\��@w�$��uB��bd�n��;�a���e8��38��x��8���q-[�z(:F����8�ᙞ�,4<7P���-�;�����b��ֵ���X,Mx5�5BO��zFd��:�/��a"�y9��A�8��-,{v�W�+18�yV��m.�3�S�Goވ��,�'�����|VW�����hȲ*!���~"�rq��8��*��l�1C��Mfr���{�3'�Ϙk�LŞ5��lE�i�T��X0v}������}v���->!�"N� L8�qv%ynKϽ�=}�f Predictive maintenance enables rail companies to get the most value out of their fleet of trains through a variety of technologies and software that reduce operating costs and extend the fleet’s lifetime. Predictive maintenance techniques are designed to help determine the condition of in-service equipment in order to estimate when maintenance should be performed. Yet, these techniques aren't exact replacements for each other. In a 2015 white paper, MapR Technologies Inc. stated, “Oil and gas companies have a major opportunity to increase efficiency and reduce operational costs through better asset tracking and predictive maintenance.”.

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